El Nino on the horizon during monsoon months
GS1History · Society · Geography· Geophysical phenomena (earthquakes, cyclones, volcanoes)· Prelims·
Why in news
Director-General of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned of a high probability of an El Nino occurring after July 2026, potentially leading to sub-par monsoon and drought conditions.
Background
The IMD stated there is a greater than 50% probability of El Nino in July and August 2026. Current forecasts predict below-normal rainfall across most of India in February with warmer temperatures.
Facts for Prelims
- FactIMD probability: Greater than 50% chance of El Nino occurring after July 2026.
- BodyIMD: India Meteorological Department is the primary agency for weather forecasting and climate monitoring in India.
For Mains
Q. Discuss the impact of El Nino and La Nina phenomena on India's monsoon patterns and suggest measures to mitigate the resulting agricultural risks.
Dimensions to cover in your answer
- Agricultural vulnerability: High risk of crop failure and water scarcity in rain-fed farming regions
- Climate adaptation: Need for localized weather forecasting and drought-resistant crop varieties
- Hydrological stress: Potential for groundwater depletion during sub-par monsoon years
Keywords: Climate Variability · Monsoon Dynamics · Agricultural Resilience · Meteorological Forecasting
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