India rain forecast: IMD forecasts below-average monsoon rains for 2026 amid El Nino concerns
GS3Economy · S&T · Environment · Security· Nuclear & new energy technology· Prelims·
Why in news
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a warning of a below-normal southwest monsoon for the June-September 2026 period due to El Nino concerns.
Background
The IMD predicts rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 87 cm. This is the first such below-normal prediction in eleven years, following a 'near normal' prediction in 2023 and a drought year in 2015.
Facts for Prelims
- FactIMD predicted rainfall for 2026 is 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
- FactThe Long Period Average (LPA) for the southwest monsoon is 87 cm.
- PlaceThe forecast covers the southwest monsoon period from June to September.
- S&TEl Nino is cited as a primary climatic concern for the 2026 monsoon forecast.
For Mains
Q. Discuss the impact of El Nino and climate variability on India's monsoon patterns and its implications for national food security.
Dimensions to cover in your answer
- Agricultural vulnerability: Impact of erratic rainfall on rain-fed cropping systems and MSP-linked procurement
- Hydrological stress: Reduced groundwater recharge and surface water availability for irrigation and drinking
- Economic volatility: Correlation between monsoon deficit and rural demand/inflationary pressures
Keywords: El Nino · Long Period Average · Monsoon variability · Climate resilience · Hydrological cycle
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This note is generated automatically from SatyaDheesh's news feed and mapped to the UPSC CSE syllabus. Check facts against the original report or PIB before using them in an answer.