After June deficit, July to see below-normal rainfall too: IMD
GS3Economy · S&T · Environment · Security· Climate change & international agreements· Prelims·
Why in news
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a forecast predicting below-normal rainfall for July 2024 following a significant rainfall deficit in June.
Background
The IMD reported a 40% rainfall deficit in June 2024 against a previous forecast of 92% of the long period average. For July 2024, rainfall is projected to be less than 94% of the long period average, influenced by strengthening El Nino conditions.
Facts for Prelims
- S&TEl Nino: A climate pattern characterized by the warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
- FactJune 2024 rainfall was approximately 60% of the long period average.
- FactJuly 2024 rainfall is projected to be less than 94% of the long period average.
- BodyIMD: The primary agency in India responsible for meteorological observations and forecasting.
For Mains
Q. Discuss the impact of El Nino and La Nina phenomena on the Indian monsoon and suggest measures to mitigate the socio-economic risks of erratic rainfall patterns.
Dimensions to cover in your answer
- Agricultural vulnerability: Risk of crop failure and reduced yields in rain-fed farming regions due to rainfall deficits.
- Hydrological stress: Reduced groundwater recharge and surface water availability affecting drinking water security in arid zones.
- Economic volatility: Impact of erratic monsoons on rural demand and food price inflation in the domestic market.
Keywords: Monsoon variability · El Nino · Climate resilience · Agricultural risk · Hydrological cycle
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